96 Glenoak Ct

Santa Rosa, CA 95409

$175,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $1,067/mo
• Annual: $12,803/yr
• Cap rate: 13.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.13%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.