604 Shohola Ln Lot 604

Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$42,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$163
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $761/mo
• Annual: $9,127/yr
• Cap rate: 28.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.61%
• DSCR: 4.45
• 1% rule: 3.66%
• Cash to close: $11,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $41k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 6.1% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: deck — Significant wear and tear
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Moderate: exterior siding — Weathered and peeling