3846 Virginia Ave

St. Louis, MO 63118

$69,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1895 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,035/yr
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.71%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($853 rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $69k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.