281 Ben Childs Rd

LaFayette, GA 30728

$150,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $61/mo
• Annual: $732/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.74%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($732/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#345 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Naomi Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 327 students, 78% FRL); Lafayette Middle School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 575 students, 77% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #353 of 424 statewide, top 86%, 1,164 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.1% in LaFayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.