1405 Division St

Vicksburg, MS 39180

$119,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $462/mo
• Annual: $5,548/yr
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.58%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $33,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#166 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Vicksburg Warren School District (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 130 in MS (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.5% in Vicksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.