239 Rokeby Rd

Red Hook, NY 12571

$650,000C-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,045 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,370
• Net cashflow: $637/mo
• Annual: $7,642/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($592k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $592k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in NY, #113 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $650k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.7% in Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,525/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 241% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.