3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,420 sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,898/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$784
Tax + insurance
−$245
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$399
Net cashflow
$470/mo
Annual
$5,644/yr
Cap rate
10.07%
Cash-on-cash
13.48%
DSCR
1.60
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$41,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Charles R-VI (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #51 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Harris Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 408 students, 30% FRL); St. Charles High (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #153 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 817 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 301 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $150k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.4% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0F67QK60TR84X9
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29