4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,386 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 82 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,376/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,440
Tax + insurance
−$1,093
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$709
Net cashflow
$-1,867/mo
Annual
$-22,400/yr
Cap rate
2.88%
Cash-on-cash
-12.20%
DSCR
0.46
1% rule
0.51%
Cash to close
$183,677
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $656k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (41.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (48.5% below list).
It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($617k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $338k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $70k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Navigator Elementary (400 students, 50% FRL); W. E. Mitchell Middle (805 students, 62% FRL); Cordova High (1,931 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 29% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$113k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0F9NR9BRTXXXWA
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29