129 S 10Th St

Newark, NJ 07107-1405

$319,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-963/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-963/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: housing D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Newark Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #452 of 472 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ann Street School (math 13% / reading 34%, grade F, #921 of 1,303 statewide, top 71%, 1,200 students, 78% FRL); East Side High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #357 of 399 statewide, top 90%, 2,255 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $319k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.