4028 Nations Dr

Douglasville, GA 30135

$323,000C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,616 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,507/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,694
• Tax + insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$736
• Net cashflow: $834/mo
• Annual: $10,005/yr
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $90,440

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $323k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $323k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $313k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#82 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bill Arp Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #620 of 1,228 statewide, top 51%, 610 students, 72% FRL); Mason Creek Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #191 of 470 statewide, top 41%, 879 students, 64% FRL); Alexander High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #162 of 424 statewide, top 40%, 1,823 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 595 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $323k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.5% in Douglasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.