1901 Dayton Rd #124

Durham, CA 95928

$115,000C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $242/mo
• Annual: $2,901/yr
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.57%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#714 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 1.6% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.