LOT 33D Mystic Dr

Ranson, WV 25438

$296,980D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,894 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$68
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,576/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $83,154

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $297k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (22.3% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.