302 SE 4th St

Andrews, TX 79714

$139,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 2010 · Manufactured · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $417/mo
• Annual: $5,002/yr
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.85%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#151 in TX, #4,199 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Andrews ISD (town): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #311 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Andrews County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Andrews County population projected at +90% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.