9016 Pyrus St

Four Corners, FL 34747

$444,999D+

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,845 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$740
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-927/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-927/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $431k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $391k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Westside K-8 School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,722 students, 39% FRL); Celebration High School (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,769 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 1665 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $327k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,907/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1754% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.