4338 Madeira Ct #3346

Bee Ridge, FL 34233

$190,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,087/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$464
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,210/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#370 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ashton Elementary School (math 89% / reading 87%, grade A+, #18 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 1,046 students, 28% FRL); Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 63% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sarasota average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.