3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,793 sqft ·
Built 1955
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 145 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,445/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$366
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$-11/mo
Annual
$-126/yr
Cap rate
6.21%
Cash-on-cash
-0.30%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-126/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (1.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (3.7% below list).
It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#586 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Mart ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #589 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Mart El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 346 students, 71% FRL); Mart H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 242 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Mart — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29