2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,939 sqft ·
Built 1976
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 395 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,447/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,436
Tax + insurance
−$883
HOA
−$772
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$514
Net cashflow
$-1,159/mo
Annual
$-13,904/yr
Cap rate
3.09%
Cash-on-cash
-11.46%
DSCR
0.49
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$76,692
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (61.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (10.7% below list).
It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $106k (61.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fairhope West Elementary (math 54% / reading 73%, grade B, #46 of 627 statewide, top 8%, 1,007 students, 39% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baldwin County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 859 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-0J14HHETM9TXW5
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29