4915 Winterbury Dr Dr #4915

McKee City, NJ 08330

$170,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1987 · Townhouse · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $246/mo
• Annual: $2,948/yr
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.19%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.