Loblolly L Plan

Aiken, SC 29801

$282,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,334 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,430/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $81,170

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Aiken Elementary (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 597 statewide, top 91%, 466 students, 100% FRL); Aiken High (math 19% / reading 84%, grade D+, #146 of 196 statewide, top 75%, 1,195 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Aiken — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,280/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.