7474 E Christmas Cholla Dr

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$749,999C-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,453/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$683
• HOA: −$32
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,145
• Net cashflow: $-341/mo
• Annual: $-4,087/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $210,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $690k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $545k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($705k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $545k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinnacle Peak Preparatory (math 49% / reading 61%, grade C, #202 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 477 students, 5% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 29% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $365k; list at $750k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.