3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
924 sqft ·
Built 1991
· Manufactured
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,925/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$135
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$404
Net cashflow
$782/mo
Annual
$9,388/yr
Cap rate
14.46%
Cash-on-cash
29.15%
DSCR
2.30
1% rule
1.67%
Cash to close
$32,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#680 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $38k; list at $115k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 5.2% in Lecanto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0JG09FCKV8B5S5
· Data 54 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29