91788 Alderwood Ln

Bunker Hill, OR 97420

$175,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $517/mo
• Annual: $6,207/yr
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.67%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#171 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marshfield Senior High School (math 17% / reading 54%, grade F, #89 of 143 statewide, top 62%, 835 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $175k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.4% in Bunker Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.