4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,000 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 184 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$18,235/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,615
Tax + insurance
−$1,089
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,829
Net cashflow
$8,702/mo
Annual
$104,419/yr
Cap rate
18.16%
Cash-on-cash
42.38%
DSCR
2.89
1% rule
2.07%
Cash to close
$246,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $880k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($104k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $880k).
It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($774k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $774k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,073 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $118k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $510k; list at $880k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $246k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 8.1% in Greenport West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0K1Z5MCFFR3TAX
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29