4809 Gull Rd #23

Waverly, MI 48917

$105,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,355/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-158/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-158/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (2.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in MI, #805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waverly Community Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #341 of 540 in MI (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 98 units permitted in Eaton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eaton County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?