11147 Acme Dr Unit D

Alafaya, FL 32825

$195,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 221 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$456
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,452/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawton Chiles Elementary (math 58% / reading 49%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 561 students, 67% FRL); Legacy Middle (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 683 students, 56% FRL); University High (math 25% / reading 57%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,555 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?