40 NE Mount Hebron Dr

Pendleton, OR 97801

$104,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,214 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,450/yr
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.34%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#267 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pendleton SD 16 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #24 of 58 in OR (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #301 of 412 statewide, top 74%, 434 students, 51% FRL); Sunridge Middle School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #59 of 128 statewide, top 46%, 637 students, 65% FRL); Pendleton High School (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #67 of 143 statewide, top 46%, 795 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 205 units permitted in Umatilla County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Umatilla County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.2% in Pendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.