23879 Southpoint Dr

Denham Springs, LA 70726

$229,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $39/mo
• Annual: $470/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($470/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Denham Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.