263 Laurie Ellis Rd

Winterville, NC 28590

$235,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,123 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-70/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-70/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.7% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#33 in NC, #3,282 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pitt County Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #100 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W H Robinson Elementary (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #472 of 1,410 statewide, top 34%, 616 students, 59% FRL); A G Cox Middle (math 37% / reading 49%, grade D-, #191 of 475 statewide, top 41%, 865 students, 52% FRL); South Central (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #344 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,675 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,300 units permitted in Pitt County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Winterville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.