Henley Plan

Berthoud, CO 80513

$559,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,649 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,176
• Tax + insurance: −$1,010
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $-1,008/mo
• Annual: $-12,094/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $169,599

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $560k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($543k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $402k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#100 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Thompson School District R-2J (suburban): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #28 of 86 in CO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berthoud Elementary School (math 54% / reading 57%, grade C+, #143 of 966 statewide, top 15%, 509 students, 18% FRL); Turner Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #56 of 270 statewide, top 23%, 461 students, 19% FRL); Berthoud High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 467 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Berthoud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.