Henley Plan

Berthoud, CO 80513

$559,990D+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,649 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax + insurance: −$933
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,076
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,136/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $156,797

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $560k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $512k (8.5% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($552k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $512k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#100 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Thompson School District R-2J (suburban): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #28 of 86 in CO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berthoud Elementary School (math 54% / reading 57%, grade C+, #143 of 966 statewide, top 15%, 509 students, 18% FRL); Turner Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #56 of 270 statewide, top 23%, 461 students, 19% FRL); Berthoud High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 368 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Berthoud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,124/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($127k/yr) (locally 55% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.