2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
750 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 183 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$986/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$304
Tax + insurance
−$64
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$207
Net cashflow
$411/mo
Annual
$4,935/yr
Cap rate
14.80%
Cash-on-cash
30.39%
DSCR
2.35
1% rule
1.70%
Cash to close
$16,240
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($986 rent vs $58k).
It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime D-.
Ada (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #177 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pontotoc County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pontotoc County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $23k; list at $58k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.0% in Ada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0MPKB12M8HZB8P
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29