4375 Davis Corners Rd

Morrisville, NY 13408

$169,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-294/mo
• Annual: $-3,531/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.6% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $118k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in NY, #4,741 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Morrisville-Eaton Central School District (rural): math 59% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #177 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Edward R Andrews Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 307 students, 57% FRL); Morrisville Middle School High School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 291 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.