412 Alexander Ave

Lorain, OH 44052

$181,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,126/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-200/mo
• Annual: $-2,398/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $50,932

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (38.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $113k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#595 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Lorain City (suburban): math 13% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #633 of 656 in OH (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Larkmoor Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 438 students, 0% FRL); Longfellow Middle School (math 9% / reading 23%, grade F, #624 of 654 statewide, top 96%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Lorain High School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #638 of 781 statewide, top 82%, 1,722 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 80% district-wide (80 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.