254 Ridge Ave

New Kensington, PA 15068

$200,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,064 sqft · Built 1910 · Other · Active · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,634/yr
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.92%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#840 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• New Kensington-Arnold SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #483 of 539 in PA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roy A. Hunt El Sch (math 18% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,174 of 1,518 statewide, top 77%, 607 students, 100% FRL); Valley Jshs (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #387 of 437 statewide, top 89%, 869 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 56% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.