7717 Koinonia Pl

Harold, FL 32564

$250,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,618/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (40.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#69 in FL, #1,163 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Milton Elementary School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 789 students, 75% FRL); Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 36% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.