9 Mountain Sun Way Unit 21-B

Waterville Valley, NH 03215

$53,900C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,706 sqft · Built 1987 · Timeshare · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$574
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $1,618/mo
• Annual: $19,416/yr
• Cap rate: 42.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.65%
• DSCR: 6.72
• 1% rule: 6.02%
• Cash to close: $15,092

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath timeshare listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($373 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waterville Valley School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #98 of 171 in NH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $54k implies a 285% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.