7402 N Central Ave

Tampa, FL 33604

$320,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-12/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-12/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cleveland Elementary School (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 199 students, 88% FRL); Adams Middle School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 593 students, 78% FRL); Chamberlain High School (math 20% / reading 23%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,262 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 52% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,458/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 2581% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.