3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,068 sqft ·
Built 1975
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,427/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$511
Tax + insurance
−$161
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$300
Net cashflow
$455/mo
Annual
$5,462/yr
Cap rate
11.89%
Cash-on-cash
20.01%
DSCR
1.89
1% rule
1.46%
Cash to close
$27,300
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Castaneda El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 474 students, 98% FRL); Faulk Middle (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 976 students, 99% FRL); Porter Early College H S (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 1,814 students, 94% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.1% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and potential leaks.
Major: siding
— The siding shows signs of wear and tear, with peeling paint and possible rot.
Major: landscaping
— The landscaping is sparse and overgrown, with little to no maintenance.
Major: fencing
— The fencing is in poor condition, with gaps and missing sections.
Moderate: kitchen
— The kitchen needs updates, as the listing mentions a cosmetic refresh.
Moderate: bathroom
— The bathroom needs updates, as the listing mentions a cosmetic refresh.
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