27 Central Ave

Buffalo, NY 14206

$108,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1901 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $363/mo
• Annual: $4,356/yr
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $30,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($747 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $108k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.