209 Gum St

Pageland, SC 29728

$279,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,553 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-355/mo
• Annual: $-4,261/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#352 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield 01 (rural): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #55 of 80 in SC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pageland Elementary (math 21% / reading 19%, grade F, #492 of 597 statewide, top 83%, 324 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 145 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.