2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,100 sqft ·
Built 1991
· Condo
· Pending
· 78 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,981/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$279
HOA
−$265
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$416
Net cashflow
$-106/mo
Annual
$-1,273/yr
Cap rate
5.70%
Cash-on-cash
-2.12%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$60,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (8.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (7.8% below list).
It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $196k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in MN, #1,353 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rice Lake Elementary (math 50% / reading 46%, grade D, #484 of 857 statewide, top 57%, 627 students, 42% FRL); Osseo Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #97 of 258 statewide, top 39%, 1,155 students, 41% FRL); Maple Grove Senior High (math 53% / reading 69%, grade C+, #42 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,324 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $166k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Maple Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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