518 Walnut St

Three Rivers, MI 49093

$219,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,910 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $404/mo
• Annual: $4,849/yr
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#306 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 15 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.2% in Three Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.