2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
772 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Condo
· Active
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,060/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,370
Tax + insurance
−$360
HOA
−$525
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$643
Net cashflow
$-838/mo
Annual
$-10,058/yr
Cap rate
4.07%
Cash-on-cash
-7.95%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$126,560
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $452k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-838 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (32.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (32.3% below list).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $304k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#181 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, cost of living F.
Pasadena Unified (urban): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #123 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Mckinley (648 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 83 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $98k; list at $452k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.5% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29