14650 114th Ave N

Dayton, MN 55327

$512,845D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,689
• Tax + insurance: −$855
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-618/mo
• Annual: $-7,415/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $143,597

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $513k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#337 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dayton Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 702 students, 29% FRL); Jackson Middle (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 1,981 students, 43% FRL); Champlin Park High School (math 48% / reading 63%, grade C, #80 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,983 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.