44451 Duckhorn Dr

Coachella, CA 92236

$109,500B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 215 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $1,151/mo
• Annual: $13,814/yr
• Cap rate: 18.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.06%
• DSCR: 3.00
• 1% rule: 2.71%
• Cash to close: $30,660

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $757 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,230 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Ridge Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 1,030 students, 81% FRL); Shadow Hills High (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 1,751 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 56% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 4.4% in Coachella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.