154 Shore Dr E

Amagansett, NY 11930

$1,825,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $26,825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,570
• Tax + insurance: −$3,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,633
• Net cashflow: $8,579/mo
• Annual: $102,951/yr
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.15%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $511,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.82M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($103k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.82M).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.80M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.80M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,030 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $511k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$127k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $26,825/mo this rent would consume 261% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.