3873 Janeen Cir

Willow Oak, FL 33860

$435,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$758
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,249
• Net cashflow: $1,660/mo
• Annual: $19,925/yr
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.36%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $415/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $435k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#579 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $231k; list at $435k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,949/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.