4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
794 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,137/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$184
Tax + insurance
−$73
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$239
Net cashflow
$641/mo
Annual
$7,696/yr
Cap rate
28.28%
Cash-on-cash
78.53%
DSCR
4.49
1% rule
3.25%
Cash to close
$9,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#252 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
Nacogdoches ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #688 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Emeline Carpenter El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 384 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 72% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Nacogdoches ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 2.3% in Nacogdoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0S4Q0Q87AGCW64
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29