2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,340/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax + insurance
−$198
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$701
Net cashflow
$1,816/mo
Annual
$21,797/yr
Cap rate
24.61%
Cash-on-cash
65.42%
DSCR
3.91
1% rule
2.81%
Cash to close
$33,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $119k).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
Orange Unified (urban): math 39% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #127 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lampson Elementary (615 students, 89% FRL); Portola Middle (597 students, 91% FRL); Orange High (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,807 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 38% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 2.2% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and in need of updating
Moderate: kitchen countertops
— dated and in need of updating
Moderate: kitchen backsplash
— dated and in need of updating
Minor: bathroom fixtures
— standard fixtures
CashFlowRE · CFR-0SJHFM1PWGF6Z9
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29