890 38th Ave #48

Pleasure Point, CA 95062

$349,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 412 sqft · Built 1955 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-672/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $349k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-672/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (14.6% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $298k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#53 in CA, #1,968 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Soquel Union Elementary (suburban): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #302 of 1,400 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Soquel Elementary (358 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 68 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.