305 N Church St

Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$183,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-486/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $51,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $183k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-486/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.